Worse than dishonesty; it is the most squalid manipulation of budgets ever seen ... [... who will finance these? China?]

Bush Budget is "a multi-trillion dollar decade long scam": "by Noriel Roubini | Associate Professor Economics, NYU | 2/9/05

The dishonesty of the administration about budget deficits has reached levels unheard of. These folks have absolutely no shame. Bush presented a budget that claims that he will achieve his goal of reducing the deficit by half by 2008 (from a false
2004 baseline of $521 billion rather than the actual 2004 deficit of $412b) and will achieve a deficit of "only" $233b by 2009. Even better news, the administration claims: the "halving" of the deficit will be reached by 2008, a year earlier than original 2009 target for it.

Who are these accounting scam artists trying to deceive? Do they think everyone in America and around the world is a mathematically challenged total idiot or an accounting moron?

The reality is, that based on realistic scenarios outlined last week by the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office, the deficit by 2009 will be close to $600b (or 4.0% of GDP) rather than falling to $233b; and the deficit will reach over $1,100b (or 5.5% of GDP) by 2015.

How do they create the false $233b deficit by 2009?

1. They assume spending cuts that are, by any historical and political standard, impossible to achieve.

2. They assume revenue growth that is altogether wishful thinking and false based on current trends. And they do not consider the long-run costs of making all the Bush tax cuts permanent.

3. They do not count the ongoing costs of the continued defense and homeland security spending and of future military and homeland security build-ups.

4. They phase-in a budget busting social security privatization (that will cost alone $4.5 trillion in the next 20 years) only starting in 2009.

This is worse than dishonesty; it is the most squalid manipulation of budgets ever seen aimed at pretending to achieve a budget figure that is utterly unrealistic and false in every possible dimension.
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First, note that the administration baseline assumes that all discretionary spending - apart from military and domestic security - will be frozen for the next five years ... every Republican in Congress (down to the most hawkish ones) knows that such draconian butchery - utter outright murder - of public services will never ever happen.

Second, note that the official objective of the administration is to make all the 2001-2003 tax cuts permanent, i.e. to cut permanently the dividends tax, the capital gains tax, the estate tax and the income tax rates. ...

Third, add sensible assumptions about the costs of the wars in Iraq, Afghanistan and other military spending. The budget announced by administration does not include any of these costs. ...

Fourth, consider the transition costs of Social Security privatization based on the tentative proposal of the administration. ...
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Then, using the most recent CBO figures one gets a budget deficit of about $600b (or 4.0% of GDP) by 2009, well above the 2004 level of $412 (3.5% of GDP), well above the fake administration target of $233b (1.5% of GDP) for 2009. Moreover, using again these realistic scenarios, by 2015 - counting the effects of the permanent tax cuts and of the phase-in of Social Security privatization - you get an explosive budget deficit of over $1,100b or 5.5% of GDP. ...