Favoritism in the suburbs: more voting machines mean ... better turn out ? larger margin? Bush vistory?

The Free Press -- Independent News Media - Election 2004: "Favoritism in the suburbs | by Richard Hayes Phillips, Ph.D. | November 27, 2004

NOTE FROM THE AUTHOR: The following study is intended as a companion to STEALING VOTES IN COLUMBUS, and should be read in that context. "
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At the bottom of the list, in wards with more than 290 registered voters per voting machine, turnout was below 60% in 16 of 19 wards; of these, Bush won 11, and Kerry won 8, showing that fewer voting machines depresses the turnout no matter whom the candidate.

... This substantiates the original charge in the Free Press ? that voting machines were withheld from predominantly black Democratic wards in Columbus, and dispersed more generously to affluent Republican suburbs.

Damschroder has publicly stated that he was not at fault because the voting machine approval process and limited funds prevented him from getting enough machines to satisfy the need. He said that he allocated the machines based on imperfect estimates. His defenders will say that my analysis shows at worst incompetence and at best, an innocent mistake.

To cross-examine this defense, let us look one more time at the data. There are 146 wards in Franklin County. In 73 wards, exactly 50%, there were fewer than 300 voters per voting machine, and in 2 wards there were 300 exactly. This was the median, and should have been the target number for equitable distribution of voting machines.

DISTRIBUTION OF VOTING MACHINES

Number of Wards: Registered Voters Per Machine < 300 300 +
In Columbus 15 59
In Suburbs 58 14
Won by Bush 54 15
Won by Kerry 19 58

There are 72 wards in the suburbs, and 74 wards in the city. 69 wards were won by Bush, and 77 wards were won by Kerry. The numbers in the above table should have been almost equal. Instead, of the 73 wards with the fewest number of registered voters per machine, 58 (79.5%) were in the suburbs, and 54 (74.0%) were won by Bush. How fair is that?

All of this mattered a lot. The median ward with fewer than 300 registered voters per voting machine had a 62.33% voter turnout. The median ward with 300 or more registered voters per voting machine had a 51.99% turnout. The voting machines could and should have been distributed more equitably. Data on voter registration was available before the election.